Oleg Hrabryj, the author « Expert Online », "Expert", « the Expert Ukraine »
In Iraq and Afghanistan the USA have provided with the policy "Аль-Каиде" what at it never was, - the big extended territory in the neighbourhood with Saudi Arabia, the countries of Levant and Turkey. It is excellent base for distribution of its influence further to the west
Photo: Reuters
Michael Shoer headed special division of CIA « Alec стэйшн » (Alec Station) on Osama's search бен Ладена with 1996−го for 1999, and then till 2004 was the special adviser of the chapter of this unique group. Two years ago « Alec стэйшн » eventually it has been dismissed, and its employees have joined other divisions of the counterterrorist center the USA. Under the official version, the reason of reorganization was new statement of a problem - цээрушные bosses quite fairly believed, that problem "Аль-Каиды" already only опосредованно is connected to the person of the most known terrorist of all times and peoples. The organization бен Ладена which skeleton of steel the Arabian Afghans who have got demobilize in the end 80−х after a conclusion of the Soviet armies from Afghanistan, has got all necessary features of global structure. To search only бен Ладена as it seemed at the highest levels, is too big luxury. The problem really became global, but refusal of the concentrated search of the terrorist number one has puzzled many. In special services the USA concerned to wards Michael Shoera with some опаской - till their 2001 алармистские analytical reports irritated the Washington ruling class. After September, 11, 2001 group Shoera, as well as it, were a cataract on an eye - their panic conclusions in many respects appeared are true, therefore compromised Bush and his environment. Today Michael Shoer already got rid of the pseudonym "Anonym" under which it has written one of the best works - « Imperial arrogance. Why the West loses war with terror ». Шоэр began one of the most convincing critics of the American foreign policy and, perhaps, one of the most informed world experts on a theme which is doomed to remain in the agenda as early as many years. As someone is witty has noticed, to declare war to terrorism from the party the USA was equivalent to to declare war to a wind.
Attitude Шоэра to an event is capaciously expressed in the name of his new book which has more recently left in the USA, - « we March directly in a hell: America and an islam after Iraq ». "Expert" has addressed to the former operative of CIA who had to rake the inheritance of jihad inspired by Americans against the Soviet armies in Afghanistan, with questions on, whether there will be a result of present military operations the USA same what almost twenty years ago has received the USSR.
Ben Laden has imposed to Americans religious war
Photo: AP
- Term of the president the USA George Busha on the sly comes to an end. Whether it is important for him or for his environment, administrations to catch Osama бен Ладена - to show evident result? Or it any more a priority?
- Now it is very difficult to tell, that on mind at the president. Objectively speaking, destruction бен Ладена - the major problem. It does not need to be taken alive. If it will be taken alive as the minimum three years to it is provided a free-of-charge television ether, it will receive a fine opportunity to address to all Muslim world as the hero. So it should be destroyed. But the American foreign policy today is present accident. Bush does not have the armies necessary to supervise a situation simultaneously in Iraq and in Afghanistan. There is no opportunity to relocate an army so that seriously to engage бен Ладеном. I think, that the following president will solve the same problems. But to it will be where more difficultly. For the first time in a history of the West and, maybe, in a world history America appeared in position when in case of an attack on it - how it was on September, 11, 2001, or even worse, - it could not be answered. Military methods appeared are extremely inefficient.
- Where, how you think, the bin Laden now disappears?
- I think, that it is on border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but not in area Vaziristana about which so speak much. Most likely, it somewhere to the north from Jelalabad, in area which refers to Кунар. It is possible, that it disappears also on the Pakistan part of this site of border - in area of autonomous region Badzhur. Here it was going to be directed in 1997 when it had to leave area of Jelalabad. But then talibs have invited it to Kandahar, and it has accepted the invitation. The area which I have named, both in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, is a place where саудиты conduct the religious propaganda already more than thirty years. It is one of the most remote уголков Afghanistan. Here all on the party бен Ладена - a relief, remoteness and religious ground.
- If it will be compelled to leave therefrom, it will leave for Yemen?
- Yes, most likely. It very much loves Yemen. All his family therefrom comes. But it does not need to move anywhere. We lose war in Afghanistan. We have not enough armies - them will be insufficiently even if we shall send there all militarians from Iraq. We have learned nothing at a history, therefore and we pay now a big price.
- How protection бен Ладена is organized? From the party it seems, that it very precisely structured division. And in general, all around of him works as well organized mechanism.
- It has managed to combine skills of the theologian of XII century and the chapter of board of directors of the company of XXI century. It operates "Аль-Каидой" how his father operated the building business. Is able to delegate powers correctly. His organization does not test any difficulties with financing. Ben Laden - the supporter of modernization. We in the West count, that modernization and вестернизация is same. But it not so. All modern tools - whether there is a speech about the newest weapon or a communication facility - at "Аль-Каиды" in a course. Ben Laden very modern person. It has masterly learned to turn against us our weapon.
- What features of structure " Аль-Каиды "? It seems, that this organization ideally approaches for an opposition with a superpower - uses power of America against it.
- One of problems are the USA that "Аль-Каиду" rank as the classical terrorist organizations. But if it was the classical terrorist group, she would be quickly destroyed. "Аль-Каида" keeps in itself the same type of the internal device which has been created with the purpose of struggle against your country in Afghanistan in 80−х years of the last century. « Аль-Каида » is much larger than usual terrorist group, she is more difficult arranged. In it there are versatile components - special troops, guerrilla groups, groups on logistic, on purchase of the weapon. Also that is important - there is also very large медийная an organization. After September, 11 of us criticized that we have no people in the spheres approached to management "Аль-Каиды". I fairly recognized - yes, we could not penetrate into this organization, but our allies in Europe, but also our allies in the Arabian and Muslim world could not make it not only we, not only. It is the extremely complex purpose for special services. Each new member of this organization applying for more or less significant positions, should have such biography and such family communications which can be traced during several generations. All is checked - not only all close relatives, but even cousin both second cousins and sisters. Such we yet did not know. We in general know about processes which go in the Muslim world very little.
"Аль-Каида" it is created to battle to the country which many times over surpasses her on power. In it the mechanism of change of leaders is rather precisely built. You, certainly, heard, how many leaders number two, three, four in the organization have been killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Qualitative changes does not occur - on a place killed immediately there are tens others. And replacement goes not equal on equal, and the chief is replaced by the assistant, the pupil replaces the teacher. So the new leader knows what to do. Efficiency does not suffer. Europe, the USA have not understood still, that the question is not absolutely terrorists. They are typical guerrillas. This fact gives our enemies weight of advantages. « Аль-Каида » has widely stretched the networks, it does not have air stations, it does not have traditional actives of the national state, but we appeared in a situation when on its attack if those happen, we will have nothing to answer in the military plan. We can strike across Iran, across Mecca, across Medina, but it only will aggravate a situation.
- But, maybe, the question is what the USA try to struggle with a uniform civil society in his Arabian Muslim version?
Is very true remark. When you listen to the present president the USA, or Clinton up to him, or present candidates in presidents, all of them speak as if we deal with a gang of gangsters which can be counted on fingers. And it on hundred percent incorrectly. For this reason America loses now simultaneously two wars. In the West in general - at least, in Europe and the USA - political leaders do not want to speak the truth. It at all war for our freedom, liberal values or gender equality. It is war which main reason is negative influence western, and in particular American, foreign policy on the Muslim world. It is religious war. Our actions in the Muslim world are perceived as an attack on an islam. For this reason opposition to America and the West, but especially America so it is strong.
Our policies, both democrats, and republicans, do not understand motivation of the opponent. They have underestimated threat. If threat which represent "Аль-Каида" and Osama bin Laden, was correctly осмыслена, the USA never would began to attack Iraq. But to this threat the American leaders trifled always. They do not want to speak people, that one of the reasons why we are at war with an islam, our clumsy support of Israel, our dependence on oil from Arabian peninsula is and, that our support of the Arabian police states - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Algeria is especially destructive for America. It to voters to explain it is impossible, therefore anybody and does not explain. Policies get out as can and declare, that terrorists want to destroy our civilization.
- What do you think concerning ability бен Ладена and his environments to make strategic decisions? They planned for Americans war in Iraq?
- If the bin Laden was the Christian, intrusion the USA to Iraq would become for him a wonderful christmas gift. It and his environment at all did not assume, that Americans appear are so silly, that полезут to Iraq. And this nonsense only is multiplied. To Americans constantly speak, that "Аль-Каида" - the main enemy the USA in Iraq. And it not so. In Iraq there is first of all a guerrilla war, and "Аль-Каида" is a makeweight to it. At guerrilla war quite definite purposes. In Iraq we now receive the same experience which Russian have wholly received in Afghanistan. Arabs were a headache for the Soviet armies, but the main enemy were all the same Afghans. Ben Laden, as is known, the child of that Afghani war. It never gets involved in bloody oppositions a forehead in a forehead. At him always near by a reliable refuge as Pakistan. It publicly explained, why has not left to the Balkans, - it there had no place to place the fighting groups. Iraq has given "Аль-Каиде" what at it before never was - the big extended territory in immediate proximity from Saudi Arabia, Levant and Turkey. And today "Аль-Каида" it is very active in Jordan and in Northern Lebanon. Israelis assert, that she already in Gaza. Its rough activity across all Africa is obvious. So the big gift of destiny for "Аль-Каиды" is not so much the appeared chance daily us to kill in Iraq and Afghanistan, how many to have an opportunity to place there bases and to distribute the influence further to the west.
- The American style of business management promoted creation of many myths about communications of special services with the terrorist organizations. We in the Chechen Republic had mirror situation. But whether there are myths which all the same not absolutely are myths?
- When I was the officer of special service, I closely worked with Afghani моджахедами during war with the Soviet army in Afghanistan. And I can tell to you quite sincerely, that we did not have communications with Osama бен Ладеном. Not because we did not want it, that is why, that already then it hated us. Your special services not by hearsay know how difficultly to trace and destroy any field commander in Afghanistan or the Chechen Republic. At you then was lumpsum 120 thousand soldiers in Afghanistan. At us there now no more than 30 thousand. With such forces we cannot make much that should. Then moslems start to think, that Americans cannot destroy бен Ладена not so much, how many do not want. It is a fruit of extremely inefficient management of war and absolute misunderstanding, we deal with what enemy and as far as it is dangerous.
- But you, being on service, never ran in конспирологию?
- (Laughs). I have worked twenty five years in special service and is absolutely convinced, that we did not have preconditions to give real peep for конспирологов. Outflow necessarily would begin, and all would end with leading articles of conducting newspapers. You even cannot present yourselves, how many at us has flowed away secrets only for the sake of the outflow.
- Analyzing everything, that « the Imperial arrogance » and your comments about бен Ладене spins around of your book and to his command, come to a conclusion, that you with it had any communication - as between the inspector and suspected. It even read your book.
- Yes, and it to me tightens all new and new readers. (Laughs). You know, I was learned by jesuits. And when you are learned by jesuits, they learn you to draw a precise side between black and white, good and bad, and the main thing to not confuse itself. To accept the world such what it is, instead of such what you want to see it. And much of about what speaks church, I have found in speeches бен Ладена. It in the Muslim world openly speaks one of the few about problems of this world. It at all does not blame Americans in all those problems which have captured the Muslim world. In them the bin Laden blames moslems for their insincerity in belief.
I would compare it to the commander German African case Ervinom Rommelem in the Second world war. It was gloomy, but dear enemy dear for talent. If we did not respect it, we could not defeat it in Africa. And so, to win бен Ладена, it needs to be understood and respected. But I shall add still something about конспирологии. At Clinton was ten fine chances to destroy бен Ладена. It has not made it. So here has worked, I would tell, bible punishment. If not to take advantage of chance when it to you is given, chance попользуется you. And this indecision concerns not only to democrats. Bush could destroy бен Ладена in the Тора-pine forest in 2001. But it did not want losses, therefore operation has failed. He had fine opportunity to destroy Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави even prior to the beginning of war in Iraq, but also it has not made it - the bases were necessary for retraction of allies in war for it. The American presidents - the extremely irresolute people.
Is such some kind of a by-product of democracy?
Is not a product of democracy, it is a product of PR. Bush always accused that it does not pay attention to the international public opinion. But just because it did not want to offend Europeans and did not want to offend arabs who extract for us oil, the bin Laden is still alive, and Абу Мусаб аз-Заркави has been liquidated only after Saddam Husejn has killed more Americans, than. Bush has been simply poisoned with idea, that it can become almost the president of all world. Instead of it it needed to concentrate on protection of Americans.
- One of the reasons why your division « Alec стэйшн » has been closed, like would consist that search бен Ладена was not considered any more in a narrow key. Other leaders have appeared many, and the administration has considered as luxury to search for one whole group? It was a mistake?
Is was only bureaucratic re-structuring. CIA and in general the government work in such key as though cold war proceeds. We have divided the world geographically - into Europe, Africa, Asia and so on. And thematically - economy, a policy, oil. For special service somehow it was unnatural to search for someone one worldwide, therefore our bureaucrats некомфортно felt themselves and eventually have dismissed structure. They have paid for it with the big blood. With such global enemy as "Аль-Каида", it is possible to battle only from one center. But if one work for you against "Аль-Каиды" in Europe, others - in Africa, the third - in Northern America, you have as a result of a heap of people which know particulars, but do not imagine how all structure functions. Such approach specifies that all of us still live myths of cold war.
- Now in the environment of Muslim religious authorities sharp enough polemic concerning methods "Аль-Каиды" began - whether they have any attitude to an islam. Once close Айману аз-Завахири улем Сайид Имам аш-Шариф not without the help of the Egyptian authorities has published the book with theological criticism of jihad "Аль-Каиды". Аз-Завахири has responded the treatise. This debate can have what value for destiny "Аль-Каиды" in the Muslim world?
- The main criticism to address of "Аль-Каиды" from the party улемов Egypt and other Arabian countries is a criticism of those who is in hands of the Egyptian, Saudi or Jordanian governments. Even in the Koran it is spoken, that the opinion of the one who is under strong pressure or is supervised by someone another, is not a subject of serious consideration. At me such impression, that the Saudi or Egyptian government publishes these books, more likely, to convince Americans, that it though something tries to make. Apparently, here there is a transaction - criticism "Аль-Каиды" in exchange for an indulgence in prison. The majority of moslems are not inclined to trust opinion of those who supervised by authorities.
- From dialogue with улемами in Iraq I had an impression, that with the help of religious studies they manage to develop powerful methodology of the strategic political analysis. She is higher than any forecasts of the western strategists the order. Americans on their background look naive gawks.
Is a good remark. We tried to learn Afghans to operate independently the country. But in fact at Afghans of two thousand years of experience on self-management. To that can we learn them? There is one quality which is the big advantage - at moslems fantastic patience. When they suffer defeat, they have patience and continue to do with the divine help the business. This tremendous advantage. They live as though in the parallel world. For some reason at us in the USA it is considered to be, that lessons of a history do not concern to us. But all that occurs now to us in Afghanistan, occured and to the Soviet army, both with British, and with itself still B.C. It waged the same war and has lost.
- A problem also that your so-called allies in region are friends of you, holding the big fig in a pocket.
- About yes. We supported моджахедов in Afghanistan only to defeat the USSR. We believed, that we control them. I worked more than ten years in special actions with Afghans. And so, they never did that we asked them to make. These are one of the most obstinate and wilful people whom I ever met. If they had to do that is necessary to us, they so arranged all, that we did not have an impression, that they have made it for us. From the very beginning, as soon as we gave them the weapon, we perfectly knew: they hate us the same as you. You were at them the first on turn. The following should be we. Anybody did not doubt of it. I shall be repeated: the bin Laden never conducted with us of negotiations because hated us. Гульбеддин Хекматияр never contacted us. When we delivered them the weapon, we perfectly knew, that we - the following.
- That is now your turn …
-. Moslems long time have been adjusted пораженчески. Ben Laden a little whom could подвигнуть on jihad. The majority believed, that a superpower to win it is impossible. The leaving of Advice from Afghanistan was the first crisis. But new burst of activity of Islamites grows gim before what has burst in the end 80−х. In fact the USA suffer defeat at once in two conflicts. Such as the bin Laden, now, apparently, will be much. We have rather vague representation even that now occurs on the Balkans. There fifteen years through the НПО work саудиты and kuwaitis. So the young generation of moslems in this part of the world will be much more middle East, than previous. I suspect, that the same processes go on Northern Caucasus.
- The former spoilt child of the Pentagon Ahmed Chalabi (it designated in presidents of Iraq after Saddam's overthrow) has recently acutely specified the whole ball of contradictions, завязавшихся in Iraq. It has declared: « your friends in Iraq are allies of your enemies in region (шиитские parties and Iran. - "Expert"). And your enemies in Iraq are allies of your friends in region (суннитские guerrilla groups and Saudi Arabia, Jordan. - "Expert") ».
- Чалаби it is absolutely right, though it one of those who has tempted the USA on a campaign to Iraq. The USA will stay in Iraq, in a daily mode will bleed profusely. We cannot leave therefrom - Americans are compelled to protect Israel. Personally I think what to protect Israel it is not necessary. But the political class in the USA considers differently. Real threat for America consists that we can turn to one big Israel - to begin the same military camp, to lose appeal of our culture to other world and to lose effective public diplomacy.
- What true attitude бен Ладена to murders and acts of terrorism, including against moslems?
- I think, that it and his environment very much tried to stop Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави in Iraq. Since September, 11, 2001 the most important threat for "Аль-Каиды" were only two things. First, the Pakistan army from which they managed to be beaten off. And, second, activity Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави on kindling суннитско-шиитской interreligious massacre. It was very serious threat for бен Ладена. If Americans have not killed it, itself "Аль-Каида" would find a way to kill it or to deduce from Iraq. "Аль-Каида" most of all worries, that among moslems civil war because such war will put an irreparable loss in their struggle against the USA and the Arabian modes did not begin.
- Whether you count split of moslems on a line сунниты-шииты achievement of the American policy?
Is extremely negative achievement. In last book « we March directly in a hell » I just I write about such involuntary consequences much. Certainly, involuntary consequences can be, but it not necessarily unforeseen consequences. And that happened in Iraq and in Afghanistan, it was possible to expect all. It was not necessary to have any unique data, access to the classified information or pictures from space to expect everything, that will be. It was necessary to esteem a history of region only. Everything, that happened with us and with these countries, happened and earlier, and for the same reason. It seems to me, that from our adventure in Iraq we shall not bear anything useful. Anything. Only bad.
- And experience? War learns to be more mobile, forces to study languages, expands an outlook. The world not seems such flat any more to what it seem to Bush in his first term.
- Yes, certainly. At us the new generation спецслужбистов has appeared and militarians, who have experience how to lose at once for two wars. From defeat always you receive more knowledge, than from a victory. But I do not know, whether all these efforts of such price cost. We could learn all this, not starting war in Iraq. All the same another - Americans have personally seen the main purchase what to create democracy somewhere « behind ocean » on the American model - a true way to destroy America. There are no already any bases to believe, that to survive, the USA it is necessary to have as much as possible democracies abroad. The main thing - to look after the garden in Northern America, and vote whether or not иракцы or Afghans - has no such the big value. For us is already unimportant, how many there in Russia at you democracy. Russia is necessary for us as the reliable partner on a lot of problems - from non-distribution of the nuclear weapon and technologies before maintenance of stability in all Eurasia. And let Russians decide, that him to do with the country. At least this my sensation. This experience is more important than the militarian.
- What all of you-таки think concerning destiny бен Ладена in a Muslim society? It becomes the hero or will be damned?
- His well-being in the Muslim world is already provided. It will recollect as the hero during several generations. And it meaningly leaves after itself(himself) a heritage in writing. In the Muslim world there is almost nobody who would not count his good moslem. With it can not agree, can not approve his methods, but nobody puts under a question his piety and his adherence to Allah. In a Muslim history it remain a figure of historical scale.
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