The forecast for 2008 for Russia.
As Alexander Sergeevich Pushkin, « wrote... The less woman we like, the we more easy like it ». In the appendix to economic (and other) to forecasts, it is words classics can be interpreted so: the more strongly the author is excited with object of forecasting, the less exact it turns out. Accordingly, to analyze the own forecast for Russia annual prescription it is much less pleasant, than similar - for economic.
Actually, the analysis of a modern Russian situation given in the forecast for Russia for 2007, an estimation of a condition and interaction of elite groups, is adequate enough, to change in it something I do not think necessary. Can be, it would be possible to add it some facts from clause published already in second half of year. Besides today it is possible to note some basic circumstances which have resulted in the course of the events considerably distinguished from described in forecast, but about it hardly is lower.
To not go into detail, we shall note three basic mistakes of the text of annual prescription. The first - it assumed, that "силовики" will manage to show some uniform ideology on the basis of which they could prove the corporate claims for authority in the country. Once again I shall repeat, corporate because each of them separately can quite count itself a part of the general elite and expects that as the concrete person it in it will be kept at any development of events. But it has not taken place.
As well as it was supposed in the forecast, absence of an intracorporate consensus has resulted in sharp conflicts which quintessence became two events: arrest of general Bulbova with V.Cherkesova's subsequent letter in "Businessman" and interview certain Шварцмана in same "Businessman". Such level of confrontation has shown what "sharply" to leave from authority to Putin in any way it is impossible - as it can result if not in civil war, to the most powerful intraelite collision which a stone on a stone to not leave from all so-called « путинской stability ».
Let's note, that though the mentioned events have taken place in the autumn, the conflict about what the Putin precisely knows, began much earlier. Actually, war of power clans went always, it is norm in any state, but before threat of loss of authority she could for a while and calm down, that I and assumed in the forecast. Also was mistaken.
In result in the forecast неминуемо should appear and the second mistake: at such development of events, about any purpose of the successor by prime-minister and speeches could not be. Formalization enough a strong figure on a position at which it has real levers of authority, would do Putin real by " a lame duck » in the American terminology. Differently, it could not carry out already the functions of the arbitrator effectively enough because one or several of the contradictory parties could address to a new figure - the future president, the successor. That there and then would create a sharp opposition of those who puts on the "old" president against those who puts on "new".
Let's note, that on a background and without that complex attitudes between the president and chairman of the government within the framework of working system of the device of the government at which all real economic powers are in the government, it for very short term would result in a catastrophic aggravation of contradictions inside already almost two presidential terms of uniform Russian elite. And if still to take into account, that the system of the device of the government does his opaque to the president and his administration the degree of this confrontation неминуемо would pass and to public sphere.
Let's note, that attempts to create structure which could supervise the government on behalf of the president, were repeatedly, once she even has crowned success (in 1997 - the beginning of 98). But then, in the spring 98 years joint efforts before a default "have demolished" so "harmful" structure and did not try to restore any more her as the objective information represented danger to all participants of political process. As to heads of administration the private problems they tried to solve due to purpose in the government on key posts for them the personal representatives.
Such variant, however, could not solve a system problem of adequate interaction of the president (as head of the state, instead of the concrete person) and the governments therefore antipresidential alliances of the government and the State Duma were constantly created. It differed both government Primakova, and Kasyanov government, and government Fradkova (the last, the truth, was politically more passive). Oleg Grigorjev (the chief of a department of the state actives of Economic management in 1997-98) has very in detail explained on our site this situation hardware and bureaucratic inevitability - as the Constitution 93 years has not finished idea of centralization - has not subordinated the government directly to the president as it is made in the USA.
So after it became clear, that new ideology (on the basis of which only and it was possible construction of an intracorporate consensus силовиков) it is not created, the preschedule announcement of the successor - the third mistake of the forecast became impossible also. At the same time, to keep the government before presidential elections too it was impossible - strong prime-minister (and any person borrowing this post long enough time, becomes a strong political figure, without dependence from the personal qualities - it is enough to recollect Kasyanov), in view of the mentioned absence of the presidential control over the government does political расклады poorly controllable.
In result, that has turned out also the forecast for Russia for 2007 which is starting with the maximal expediency has turned out, appeared unsuccessful. There has come time to proceed to the forecast for the come 2008.
We shall begin it with description of political circumstances which in the begun year become the problems, mentioned in the first part of our forecast. First of them is that elite consensus which has allowed to appear « путинской stability ». It will consist that to the end of 90th years the new Russian elite has come to a conclusion that, irrespective of an acuteness inside the elite conflict, is impossible to address for amplification of the positions to a society. We shall note, that the interdiction on a conclusion of internal conflicts for limits of elite is имманентной a part for any "democracy" in frameworks of the "Western" global project. As it can catastrophically destabilize a political situation and places under a threat not only lost in political fights, but also won.
In our country with this consensus all have agreed not - but these last, somehow gradually, appeared outside of limits of political life of Russia, and outside its territory too. And inside the country during Putin's presidency this informal elite contract was amplified with a plenty of the decisions facilitating his performance, especially, in the elective legislation.
Serious support to achievement and support of this arrangement about discharge of a society from participation in current political (and economic) life was given with the second circumstance. The rise in prices has allowed to increase by oil, gas and other natural resources essentially volume of "pie" which was redistributed within the framework of elite, and it gave a resource for the arrangement practically with all "offended" within the framework of elite conflicts which occur in all societies and at all times. Actually, during Putin any person observing informal arrangements, has not been deduced for limits of elite group.
But today the situation has changed in the radical image. First of all, "pie" has ceased to grow. As for the reasons internal - spent by group the liberal - рефоматоров the credit policy demands more and more and more resources even for preservation of a standard of life of the population, let alone his some increase. And external - dollar inflation обесценивает already saved up gold and exchange currency reserves also reduces effect from increase of the prices for resources. Besides though the public debt of the Russian Federation also was reduced seriously enough for last years, but the duty corporate, which return also has sharply grown demands redistribution of the current incomes.
Change of the president should result in serious enough changes in the top echelon of machinery of state. Even if to assume, that there will be no practically any changes (conditionally speaking, Медведев - on Putin, Putin's place - on place Зубкова, and Зубкова - on place Медведева in board of directors " Gazprom ") contradictions between administration of the president and the government which almost for certain will result in new hardware war in style of 90th years all the same will sharply become aggravated. And here it is practically inevitable a pleasant problem of distribution of superfluous "pie" it will be replaced with redistribution already available, that is it is necessary to select at someone something for ever...
These problems become aggravated due to one more circumstance. Exist, roughly speaking, two basic systems of definition of scale of access of the concrete person to public "pie": "administrative" and "elite". The first, more typical for east countries, will be, that the scale and quality of this access is defined by a post in machinery of state managements ("Tables of ranks") and sharply reduced in case of loss of this post. The second will be, that access to "pie" is defined by the informal intraelite status of the person and poorly correlates with his formal purposes in system of public service which can not be at all. We shall note, that such variant can exist only in the countries, with strongly advanced elite infrastructure: system of the "closed" clubs and the organizations within the framework of which the status of this or that person is defined.
The first way though there were also elements of the second was always habitual for Russia. But 8 years « путинской stability » have accustomed all to that anyone, even the smallest post is inextricably related with financial streams. And naturally enough, that those who will be compelled in the begun year to leave from official posts, will try "to withdraw" together with itself and these streams - for example, by the conclusion of long-term "enslaving" contracts with friendly structures. So new heads, having come on like a "warm" place, with interest will find out, that they are bound hand and foot by already authorized rules and arrangements, cannot result with itself the habitual employees as all places are already borrowed, and financial streams go "past" - to old heads who thus appeal to the "elite" positions and lean on the people which have stayed on key places.
In result, the conflict of two these systems will sharply become aggravated, and new heads who they were, the situation will stimulate to search and opening of numerous infringements and crimes of predecessors (somebody doubts, what them much enough, it is especial in view of quality of modern machinery of state?). Thus, in connection with a worsening economic situation (even prior to the beginning of a sharp, catastrophic stage of world crisis) and general-political confrontation, the administrative vertical will actively press on new (and old) heads, categorically demanding increase of an overall performance. About it, however, below, in an economic part of the forecast.
Will appeal to the government in such situation senselessly, especially if Putin all the same becomes prime-minister (in what personally I do not believe) as it will actively try to lower an acuteness of the elite conflicts incorporated still during the Путина-president. And questions will be solved at only economic level not only because they enter into powers of the government, but also that their conclusion in political sphere will mean inevitable connection of new and unfriendly force - administrations of the president.
In turn, offended which are always, неминуемо will start to deduce conflicts in political sphere, connecting unique instance in Russia, having political amateur performance. Differently, the new president will be filled up with a shaft of the information received both on official, and on informal channels about necessity of acceptance of political decisions in connection with numerous infringements and crimes.
Let's note, that itself Медведев which almost for certain becomes the president, by formation and an image of idea - the lawyer, законник, and it means, that if the mentioned information will be correctly structured (that, eventually, inevitably will take place) Медведев will start to make on it political decisions. Conditionally speaking, « for return to a legal field ». And if to this to add, that, as against the previous heads of Russia, it within the framework of the career, moved only « on growing », most likely, it will operate sharply enough
Let's note, that completeness of economic authority all the same remain at the government which will rather quickly agree within the framework of operative activity with the State Duma. And unique advantage which will be at the new president - an opportunity of acceptance of political decisions. It is possible, that at the first stage it will be, within the framework of the mentioned above elite consensus, to be kept in general from any actions. But all the increasing shaft of the critical information (more and more структурирующийся in a correct direction, namely, that all problems arise not from unsuccessful system, and from rough infringements of the law by separate "wreckers"), will push it on decision-making. And political as it basically cannot independently accept others.
And those persons, who will be interested in as much as possible to speed up this moment, those who is interested in acceleration of process of change of procedure of access to public "pie", will actively stimulate this process. But as it will be necessary for them to force to make of the new president political decisions they will appeal to the public, people, breaking thus base of the elite contract made on results of 90th years. And to explain them danger of such decision it is senseless - as, we shall repeat once again, the only thing for them a way to become successful, that is is high-grade enter (or to not leave) in modern Russian elite, is compulsion of the new president to carry out exclusive for the Russian state system political powers. And to make it it is possible only by deducing the conflict from banal dispute on financial streams on a political level.
Differently, put here not actually in Медведеве and at all in Медведеве. Any change of the first person within the framework of the political system created by Yeltsin, неминуемо defreezes the conflicts inhibited at the previous mode. There are two outputs from this situation. The first - returning to east system - when cannot be "oligarches", that is persons whom managements can influence a policy because of limits of system state. Differently, it is refusal of a capitalism, authority of the capital. The capitalism has destroyed absolute monarchy in Russia, but win tradition could not - the system working in the USSR, was essentially administrative, outside of a post, the device, any person essentially influences a policy not could in any way.
The second - creation of system of "elite" type, that is development of intraelite structure of decision-making and карьерного growth. And preconditions for it are - we have advanced enough system of regional, national and корпоративно-professional groups and communities inside which the hierarchy can not coincide at all with formal - bureaucratic. It are necessary to create only the mechanism of their interaction and to coordinate it to formal machineries of government. Put only that just this last step contradicts the Constitution accepted in 93 year which does by the Supreme arbitrator the president, practically not limiting it in this role. And constantly creating ground for the sharp conflict of elite to the president, constantly compelling the last to create and develop intraelite conflicts. Putin has tried to avoid this policy - and as a result has received a catastrophic situation in economy. Let's note, that in case of the variant offered by O.Grigorjevym, a situation differs strikingly: in this case the opportunities of the president brought in the Constitution, will be limited to his responsibility for the current economic activities.
In end of this analysis it is necessary to note, that it would be possible to try to create system of intraelite arrangements on the basis of similar system of one of large corporations (in public, instead of commercial sense). First of all, here the corporation power again occurs, informal association of workers of special services, what under this word to not understand. But last during Putin's presidency has shown such full feebleness regarding development of long-term political plans (the mentioned ideology only one fragment of this sad picture), that itself has compelled it to make a choice of the successor for the benefit of Медведева. Conditionally speaking, силовики for postSoviet time and could not create in the environment of analogue of the Political bureau of a Central Committee of the CPSU, as body of acceptance of political decisions.
Let's note, that all resulted reasonings practically do not mention an economic situation. More precisely, appeal only to its one party - a stop of growth of public "pie". And in fact the condition of economy in Russia in itself can put before the new president (and prime-minister!) serious problems.
Let's remind, that within the framework of the mentioned above elite consensus, the important functions of the control over a credit policy of the state have got to group of "liberals - reformers". They have taken advantage of it the same as at 96-98 гг, practically completely having repeated the policy of that period. And she even was carried out with same people - Ignatyev and Kudrin in 1997-98 were the first deputy ministers of the finance. In detail about it it is written in the forecast for 2007, we are interested now with results of this work.
As the main element of a "монетарно-liberal" policy in 90th years was sharp reduction of monetary weight (ostensibly, for struggle against inflation) similar methods were applied also last years (especially after leaving Геращенко from a post of chairman of the Central Bank). In result a level монетизации economy, a little having risen in 1999-2003 to grow has ceased. Certainly, and then, and now, crisis of credit liquidity caused growth of inflation. In 90th years this crisis was more rigid (total amount of the credit made less than 10 % from gross national product at norm - about 100 %), than now (total volume of the credit in Russia - about 40 % from gross national product), therefore and inflation was higher.
And if in 90th years shortage of credit resources basically covered due to private issue of monetary substitutes (bills) last years their lack was compensated by two basic ways: translation of a part of calculations for limits of Russia and credits of foreign banks.
Last circumstance, together with the big proficiency of the foreign trade balance, allows liberals to support is artificial the overestimated rouble exchange rate, that, in turn, creates the whole bouquet of negative consequences for economy of Russia. First, constant (even let and not so fast) growth of a rouble exchange rate constantly reduces competitiveness of the Russian manufacturers, both on external, and in a home market. Import Russia continuously grows, manufacture if does not fall, all develops more slowly, and profitableness of manufacture falls. Second, all becomes more favourable and more favourable speculative operations in Russia which involve all available assets (as in a threshold of a default market GKO as the vacuum cleaner exhausted all available assets in the country). Thirdly, as well as in 90th years dependence of all domestic financial system on course risks grows - the currency debts saved up at a high rouble exchange rate hardly can be returned, if the rouble exchange rate will sharply fall.
Let's note, that half of those credits which are given in our country, have the "western" origin. And, certainly, they are limited in use - such credits do not go on support of manufacture, and are intended for reception of the speculative profit, first of all in the market of the real estate and the market of consumer crediting. Today these markets obviously are in a complex condition, just that the level of the income of the population does not allow their further "promotion".
Besides dependence of the Russian banks from "western" is greatest, as they, due to working demand lines of credit, in many respects close their problems with liquidity. Autumn bank crisis in the USA and Europe has caused acute problems with liquidity in the Russian banks which the liberal management of the Central Bank began to extinguish вбросом money. Thus, not having neither the fulfilled system of work with liquidity, nor experience, the staff. If still to take into account psychology of the Russian banker which any "superfluous" money there and then deduces for limits of the country efficiency of this work was enough low, and increase in monetary inflation - appreciable.
Let's note, as the saved up reserves here cannot serve as a guarantee - growth rate saved up corporate credits already exceeds growth rate of reserves, at comparable absolute values. We shall note still strange opinion, there is enough frequently проскальзывающее in expert and administrative circles - that the Stabilization fund is addition to ЗВР the Central Bank, while actually, it a part of these reserves.
There are also other problems - the inadequate tax system encouraging financial gamble and limiting real manufacture, fast growth of "shadow" economy, утеря the control of the Central Bank over monetary circulation and so on, but they were repeatedly discussed on a site and in this text are represented excessive
Such detailed enough discussion of economic problems has been given not casually - 2008 becomes year of "opening" of many of them. Well, really, during elections and the first months of the new president in any way it is not necessary to reduce a standard of living of an overwhelming part of the population sharply. But also to stop inflationary processes, reduction of incomes of hired workers in connection with stagnation of a making part of economy and enormous growth administrative having overcome, both on businessmen, and on citizens (as ростов charges on housing and communal services, for example) without radical change of a policy it is impossible. And for this purpose it is necessary to change not less considerably a managing top - that was unconditional табу last years. In result a fire try to fill with gasoline, and at once on two directions: raise social charges of the budget and pump up money the large state concerns created last years.
But growth of social charges cannot already result in positive effects - the economy has practically passed on inflationary rails, the rise in prices outstrips budgetary payments. As to state concerns and initially their efficiency was in doubt, and at presence of completely enormous budgets given « it is simple so » - without the rigid, fixed plans of works which default for executors is fraught with the most serious consequences - becomes simply zero, if not negative. The matter is that in the USSR the main figure in such concerns the main designer - as a matter of fact, instead of on a post was. And at us - the main manager of money who, by developed tradition, occurs any more from designers, and from "менагеров", the new, rather specific caste generated for last years.
On a theme of this group there are already many jokes (for example, translation of term "МВА" into Russian - the graduate of technical school of the Soviet trade), but its essence from it does not vary: these are people which purposefully trained on increase of efficiency of feedback of money! And at all on achievement of the concrete result necessary for the state! "Менагер" will never "bury" money to НИОКРы or a professional training - it will enclose them in the financial market, and for experts will search on a labour market... The Trouble only that there are no at us already today these experts... "Менагеров", but it is, a lot of, and they have already captivated even the state structures, as a matter of fact, essentially opposite to them on outlook.
Passing to an economic part of the forecast it is possible to note, that arrival of the new president неминуемо will cause some "audit" of a condition of the Russian economy and a control system of her. Also it will quickly be found out, that many of already widely advertised plans cannot be executed: because money have already plundered, because there is no staff because it is already impossible to repeat even the Soviet development and so on. That inflation is much higher than official figures, that those who is responsible for system of monetary circulation basically do not understand, how she is arranged, and can repeat senselessly only in different variants of a mantra from textbooks "экономикс", that how to return a corporate duty not clear and to use for this purpose gold and exchange currency reserves of the Central Bank it is impossible, as for this purpose is necessary общеэлитный a consensus, and so on, and so forth.
Not so also it is clear how to struggle with crisis of bank liquidity as it would be necessary to create new systems of interaction of banks from the Central Bank, but for this purpose it is necessary to change a management of this organization, and not simply to change, and under the new concept which, naturally, still nobody has written. And even if has written, authors precisely do not enter into modern Russian elite so to appoint them to high posts in frameworks of " an elite consensus » it is impossible. Not so clearly, what to do with crisis in the market of the real estate which is for the present supported in the "stiffened" condition, but by experience the USA we know, than all this can end. Especially in connection with that his main thing бенефициарам in the begun year all the same is necessary to retire.
Let's note, that all these problems take place irrespective of described in общеэкономическом the forecast of crisis in the world financial markets. After a deflationary shock a problem will be aggravated repeatedly as "pie", will be reduced « in times » but the matter is that the described problems can be shown prior to the beginning of a sharp stage of world crisis. To do the forecast how events will develop further, I am not taken at all as any of the listed problems can practically "shoot", and resulted in the first part of the forecast the analysis shows, that sharp elite crisis неминуемо will be imposed on crisis economic. Victims of economic perturbations (including personally very rich people) will desperately struggle for return of the privileges, banks, financial streams, toughening political strike. And those who will lose fights political, will be, for simplification of the situation and complication of a position of political opponents, to provoke economic problems: branch, regional, corporate.
Thus, year will be very complex, and I think, that as it already once was, the forecast in the beginning of summer should be added or specified essentially.
2008-11-08
2008-09-22
The second war
Paul Burmistrov
Russia continues to be the main thing « the bad guy » in the international public opinion. But for the first time after events in Ossetia there are certificates and that to military presence the USA in Georgia now too there will be a steadfast attention
The American soldiers share military experience with Georgian three weeks prior to intrusion into Ossetia (on base Вазиани)
The American soldiers share military experience with Georgian three weeks prior to intrusion into Ossetia (on base Вазиани)
Photo: AP; AFP/EAST NEWS
On twenty eighth of August the deputy chief of Joint Staff VS of the Russian Federation general - colonel Anatoly Nogovitsyn has told to journalists that the Russian militarians have found « a lot of interesting » in a stuffing American "хаммеров", seized in the Georgian city of Poti. Data have appeared, that this stuffing concerns satellite investigation. Anyhow, intriguing tone Ноговицына and strange persistence of requirements of Americans to return technics have caused weight of questions. Under information "РР", the Russian militarians have found « a lot of interesting » not only in "хаммерах". Including it, probably, that the Russian armies remain in Поти speaks: in Georgia appeared both other American technics and an infrastructure which so simply therefrom you will not take out. And she not for the help is intended to Georgians, and for preparation of impact across Iran.
The prospect of war in Iran frightens Europeans much more, than Russian "safety zone" in Georgia. Special services of Netherlands, according to newspaper De Telegraaf, have been compelled to interrupt very successful operation on introduction of the agents in nuclear and rocket projects of Iran and urgently to evacuate people. The reason - the message on fast American impact on objects of the Iranian rocket - nuclear infrastructure. And the information on it has been received right after the conflict on Caucasus.
Interestingly and that Israel that day when the Russian armies have come in South Ossetia, has hastened to make with the application about immediate сворачивании military - technical cooperation with Georgia. There at once have understood, that Russia will have an answer for those who supports Georgia the weapon. Israel would not like at all that in Iran at the moment of the beginning of bombardment of nuclear objects there were modern Russian air defences.
Whether in view of the submitted version it is possible to name casual I meet between the chapter of FSB Bortnikovym and minister for investigation of Iran Эджейе which has taken place at the end of the last week? As has informed agency IRNA referring to the Iranian embassy in Moscow, « the parties have discussed the mutual expanded cooperation in business of joint gathering and use разведданных ».
Right after input of the Russian armies to South Ossetia (on August, 8) from Tbilisi the USA have been evacuated by plane of the Air Forces about hundred American military experts. People have taken away, and the technics has remained. Details about military instructors have already interested also the western press: so, Financial Times asserts, that one of groups American военспецов has arrived to Georgia on August, 4, and contracts with them were concluded with the same organization that helped хорватам during the Balkan wars 90−х. This organization carries abbreviation MPRI and, certainly, denies any fault for events of 1995 when from Serbian Краины have been compelled to run 200 thousand person.
As to notorious "хаммеров", under the American version, they were in port in the sealed warehouses and for sending on base the USA to Germany after end of the грузино-American doctrines waited. But doctrines have ended 8 days prior to war and for 12 days that of how the Russian armies appeared in Поти. Probably, this technics just should execute the mission in Georgia.
Affinity of the American impact across Iran during many months specified outflow from the American military departments. It would be quite logical, if drawing of impact was planned by American "hawks" before presidential elections to the USA. And unexpectedly fast reaction of the Russian militarians to events in Georgia, probably, has reduced chances of successful sudden attack of Iran: and not only capture некоей the important technics, how many the prospecting information and that the attention to the American military activity now in the world has essentially grown.
2008-05-20
Alive to not take
Incorrect translation from «Эксперт» №15 (604)
Oleg Hrabryj, the author « Expert Online », "Expert", « the Expert Ukraine »
In Iraq and Afghanistan the USA have provided with the policy "Аль-Каиде" what at it never was, - the big extended territory in the neighbourhood with Saudi Arabia, the countries of Levant and Turkey. It is excellent base for distribution of its influence further to the west
Photo: Reuters
Michael Shoer headed special division of CIA « Alec стэйшн » (Alec Station) on Osama's search бен Ладена with 1996−го for 1999, and then till 2004 was the special adviser of the chapter of this unique group. Two years ago « Alec стэйшн » eventually it has been dismissed, and its employees have joined other divisions of the counterterrorist center the USA. Under the official version, the reason of reorganization was new statement of a problem - цээрушные bosses quite fairly believed, that problem "Аль-Каиды" already only опосредованно is connected to the person of the most known terrorist of all times and peoples. The organization бен Ладена which skeleton of steel the Arabian Afghans who have got demobilize in the end 80−х after a conclusion of the Soviet armies from Afghanistan, has got all necessary features of global structure. To search only бен Ладена as it seemed at the highest levels, is too big luxury. The problem really became global, but refusal of the concentrated search of the terrorist number one has puzzled many. In special services the USA concerned to wards Michael Shoera with some опаской - till their 2001 алармистские analytical reports irritated the Washington ruling class. After September, 11, 2001 group Shoera, as well as it, were a cataract on an eye - their panic conclusions in many respects appeared are true, therefore compromised Bush and his environment. Today Michael Shoer already got rid of the pseudonym "Anonym" under which it has written one of the best works - « Imperial arrogance. Why the West loses war with terror ». Шоэр began one of the most convincing critics of the American foreign policy and, perhaps, one of the most informed world experts on a theme which is doomed to remain in the agenda as early as many years. As someone is witty has noticed, to declare war to terrorism from the party the USA was equivalent to to declare war to a wind.
Attitude Шоэра to an event is capaciously expressed in the name of his new book which has more recently left in the USA, - « we March directly in a hell: America and an islam after Iraq ». "Expert" has addressed to the former operative of CIA who had to rake the inheritance of jihad inspired by Americans against the Soviet armies in Afghanistan, with questions on, whether there will be a result of present military operations the USA same what almost twenty years ago has received the USSR.
Ben Laden has imposed to Americans religious war
Photo: AP
- Term of the president the USA George Busha on the sly comes to an end. Whether it is important for him or for his environment, administrations to catch Osama бен Ладена - to show evident result? Or it any more a priority?
- Now it is very difficult to tell, that on mind at the president. Objectively speaking, destruction бен Ладена - the major problem. It does not need to be taken alive. If it will be taken alive as the minimum three years to it is provided a free-of-charge television ether, it will receive a fine opportunity to address to all Muslim world as the hero. So it should be destroyed. But the American foreign policy today is present accident. Bush does not have the armies necessary to supervise a situation simultaneously in Iraq and in Afghanistan. There is no opportunity to relocate an army so that seriously to engage бен Ладеном. I think, that the following president will solve the same problems. But to it will be where more difficultly. For the first time in a history of the West and, maybe, in a world history America appeared in position when in case of an attack on it - how it was on September, 11, 2001, or even worse, - it could not be answered. Military methods appeared are extremely inefficient.
- Where, how you think, the bin Laden now disappears?
- I think, that it is on border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but not in area Vaziristana about which so speak much. Most likely, it somewhere to the north from Jelalabad, in area which refers to Кунар. It is possible, that it disappears also on the Pakistan part of this site of border - in area of autonomous region Badzhur. Here it was going to be directed in 1997 when it had to leave area of Jelalabad. But then talibs have invited it to Kandahar, and it has accepted the invitation. The area which I have named, both in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, is a place where саудиты conduct the religious propaganda already more than thirty years. It is one of the most remote уголков Afghanistan. Here all on the party бен Ладена - a relief, remoteness and religious ground.
- If it will be compelled to leave therefrom, it will leave for Yemen?
- Yes, most likely. It very much loves Yemen. All his family therefrom comes. But it does not need to move anywhere. We lose war in Afghanistan. We have not enough armies - them will be insufficiently even if we shall send there all militarians from Iraq. We have learned nothing at a history, therefore and we pay now a big price.
- How protection бен Ладена is organized? From the party it seems, that it very precisely structured division. And in general, all around of him works as well organized mechanism.
- It has managed to combine skills of the theologian of XII century and the chapter of board of directors of the company of XXI century. It operates "Аль-Каидой" how his father operated the building business. Is able to delegate powers correctly. His organization does not test any difficulties with financing. Ben Laden - the supporter of modernization. We in the West count, that modernization and вестернизация is same. But it not so. All modern tools - whether there is a speech about the newest weapon or a communication facility - at "Аль-Каиды" in a course. Ben Laden very modern person. It has masterly learned to turn against us our weapon.
- What features of structure " Аль-Каиды "? It seems, that this organization ideally approaches for an opposition with a superpower - uses power of America against it.
- One of problems are the USA that "Аль-Каиду" rank as the classical terrorist organizations. But if it was the classical terrorist group, she would be quickly destroyed. "Аль-Каида" keeps in itself the same type of the internal device which has been created with the purpose of struggle against your country in Afghanistan in 80−х years of the last century. « Аль-Каида » is much larger than usual terrorist group, she is more difficult arranged. In it there are versatile components - special troops, guerrilla groups, groups on logistic, on purchase of the weapon. Also that is important - there is also very large медийная an organization. After September, 11 of us criticized that we have no people in the spheres approached to management "Аль-Каиды". I fairly recognized - yes, we could not penetrate into this organization, but our allies in Europe, but also our allies in the Arabian and Muslim world could not make it not only we, not only. It is the extremely complex purpose for special services. Each new member of this organization applying for more or less significant positions, should have such biography and such family communications which can be traced during several generations. All is checked - not only all close relatives, but even cousin both second cousins and sisters. Such we yet did not know. We in general know about processes which go in the Muslim world very little.
"Аль-Каида" it is created to battle to the country which many times over surpasses her on power. In it the mechanism of change of leaders is rather precisely built. You, certainly, heard, how many leaders number two, three, four in the organization have been killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Qualitative changes does not occur - on a place killed immediately there are tens others. And replacement goes not equal on equal, and the chief is replaced by the assistant, the pupil replaces the teacher. So the new leader knows what to do. Efficiency does not suffer. Europe, the USA have not understood still, that the question is not absolutely terrorists. They are typical guerrillas. This fact gives our enemies weight of advantages. « Аль-Каида » has widely stretched the networks, it does not have air stations, it does not have traditional actives of the national state, but we appeared in a situation when on its attack if those happen, we will have nothing to answer in the military plan. We can strike across Iran, across Mecca, across Medina, but it only will aggravate a situation.
- But, maybe, the question is what the USA try to struggle with a uniform civil society in his Arabian Muslim version?
Is very true remark. When you listen to the present president the USA, or Clinton up to him, or present candidates in presidents, all of them speak as if we deal with a gang of gangsters which can be counted on fingers. And it on hundred percent incorrectly. For this reason America loses now simultaneously two wars. In the West in general - at least, in Europe and the USA - political leaders do not want to speak the truth. It at all war for our freedom, liberal values or gender equality. It is war which main reason is negative influence western, and in particular American, foreign policy on the Muslim world. It is religious war. Our actions in the Muslim world are perceived as an attack on an islam. For this reason opposition to America and the West, but especially America so it is strong.
Our policies, both democrats, and republicans, do not understand motivation of the opponent. They have underestimated threat. If threat which represent "Аль-Каида" and Osama bin Laden, was correctly осмыслена, the USA never would began to attack Iraq. But to this threat the American leaders trifled always. They do not want to speak people, that one of the reasons why we are at war with an islam, our clumsy support of Israel, our dependence on oil from Arabian peninsula is and, that our support of the Arabian police states - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Algeria is especially destructive for America. It to voters to explain it is impossible, therefore anybody and does not explain. Policies get out as can and declare, that terrorists want to destroy our civilization.
- What do you think concerning ability бен Ладена and his environments to make strategic decisions? They planned for Americans war in Iraq?
- If the bin Laden was the Christian, intrusion the USA to Iraq would become for him a wonderful christmas gift. It and his environment at all did not assume, that Americans appear are so silly, that полезут to Iraq. And this nonsense only is multiplied. To Americans constantly speak, that "Аль-Каида" - the main enemy the USA in Iraq. And it not so. In Iraq there is first of all a guerrilla war, and "Аль-Каида" is a makeweight to it. At guerrilla war quite definite purposes. In Iraq we now receive the same experience which Russian have wholly received in Afghanistan. Arabs were a headache for the Soviet armies, but the main enemy were all the same Afghans. Ben Laden, as is known, the child of that Afghani war. It never gets involved in bloody oppositions a forehead in a forehead. At him always near by a reliable refuge as Pakistan. It publicly explained, why has not left to the Balkans, - it there had no place to place the fighting groups. Iraq has given "Аль-Каиде" what at it before never was - the big extended territory in immediate proximity from Saudi Arabia, Levant and Turkey. And today "Аль-Каида" it is very active in Jordan and in Northern Lebanon. Israelis assert, that she already in Gaza. Its rough activity across all Africa is obvious. So the big gift of destiny for "Аль-Каиды" is not so much the appeared chance daily us to kill in Iraq and Afghanistan, how many to have an opportunity to place there bases and to distribute the influence further to the west.
- The American style of business management promoted creation of many myths about communications of special services with the terrorist organizations. We in the Chechen Republic had mirror situation. But whether there are myths which all the same not absolutely are myths?
- When I was the officer of special service, I closely worked with Afghani моджахедами during war with the Soviet army in Afghanistan. And I can tell to you quite sincerely, that we did not have communications with Osama бен Ладеном. Not because we did not want it, that is why, that already then it hated us. Your special services not by hearsay know how difficultly to trace and destroy any field commander in Afghanistan or the Chechen Republic. At you then was lumpsum 120 thousand soldiers in Afghanistan. At us there now no more than 30 thousand. With such forces we cannot make much that should. Then moslems start to think, that Americans cannot destroy бен Ладена not so much, how many do not want. It is a fruit of extremely inefficient management of war and absolute misunderstanding, we deal with what enemy and as far as it is dangerous.
- But you, being on service, never ran in конспирологию?
- (Laughs). I have worked twenty five years in special service and is absolutely convinced, that we did not have preconditions to give real peep for конспирологов. Outflow necessarily would begin, and all would end with leading articles of conducting newspapers. You even cannot present yourselves, how many at us has flowed away secrets only for the sake of the outflow.
- Analyzing everything, that « the Imperial arrogance » and your comments about бен Ладене spins around of your book and to his command, come to a conclusion, that you with it had any communication - as between the inspector and suspected. It even read your book.
- Yes, and it to me tightens all new and new readers. (Laughs). You know, I was learned by jesuits. And when you are learned by jesuits, they learn you to draw a precise side between black and white, good and bad, and the main thing to not confuse itself. To accept the world such what it is, instead of such what you want to see it. And much of about what speaks church, I have found in speeches бен Ладена. It in the Muslim world openly speaks one of the few about problems of this world. It at all does not blame Americans in all those problems which have captured the Muslim world. In them the bin Laden blames moslems for their insincerity in belief.
I would compare it to the commander German African case Ervinom Rommelem in the Second world war. It was gloomy, but dear enemy dear for talent. If we did not respect it, we could not defeat it in Africa. And so, to win бен Ладена, it needs to be understood and respected. But I shall add still something about конспирологии. At Clinton was ten fine chances to destroy бен Ладена. It has not made it. So here has worked, I would tell, bible punishment. If not to take advantage of chance when it to you is given, chance попользуется you. And this indecision concerns not only to democrats. Bush could destroy бен Ладена in the Тора-pine forest in 2001. But it did not want losses, therefore operation has failed. He had fine opportunity to destroy Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави even prior to the beginning of war in Iraq, but also it has not made it - the bases were necessary for retraction of allies in war for it. The American presidents - the extremely irresolute people.
Is such some kind of a by-product of democracy?
Is not a product of democracy, it is a product of PR. Bush always accused that it does not pay attention to the international public opinion. But just because it did not want to offend Europeans and did not want to offend arabs who extract for us oil, the bin Laden is still alive, and Абу Мусаб аз-Заркави has been liquidated only after Saddam Husejn has killed more Americans, than. Bush has been simply poisoned with idea, that it can become almost the president of all world. Instead of it it needed to concentrate on protection of Americans.
- One of the reasons why your division « Alec стэйшн » has been closed, like would consist that search бен Ладена was not considered any more in a narrow key. Other leaders have appeared many, and the administration has considered as luxury to search for one whole group? It was a mistake?
Is was only bureaucratic re-structuring. CIA and in general the government work in such key as though cold war proceeds. We have divided the world geographically - into Europe, Africa, Asia and so on. And thematically - economy, a policy, oil. For special service somehow it was unnatural to search for someone one worldwide, therefore our bureaucrats некомфортно felt themselves and eventually have dismissed structure. They have paid for it with the big blood. With such global enemy as "Аль-Каида", it is possible to battle only from one center. But if one work for you against "Аль-Каиды" in Europe, others - in Africa, the third - in Northern America, you have as a result of a heap of people which know particulars, but do not imagine how all structure functions. Such approach specifies that all of us still live myths of cold war.
- Now in the environment of Muslim religious authorities sharp enough polemic concerning methods "Аль-Каиды" began - whether they have any attitude to an islam. Once close Айману аз-Завахири улем Сайид Имам аш-Шариф not without the help of the Egyptian authorities has published the book with theological criticism of jihad "Аль-Каиды". Аз-Завахири has responded the treatise. This debate can have what value for destiny "Аль-Каиды" in the Muslim world?
- The main criticism to address of "Аль-Каиды" from the party улемов Egypt and other Arabian countries is a criticism of those who is in hands of the Egyptian, Saudi or Jordanian governments. Even in the Koran it is spoken, that the opinion of the one who is under strong pressure or is supervised by someone another, is not a subject of serious consideration. At me such impression, that the Saudi or Egyptian government publishes these books, more likely, to convince Americans, that it though something tries to make. Apparently, here there is a transaction - criticism "Аль-Каиды" in exchange for an indulgence in prison. The majority of moslems are not inclined to trust opinion of those who supervised by authorities.
- From dialogue with улемами in Iraq I had an impression, that with the help of religious studies they manage to develop powerful methodology of the strategic political analysis. She is higher than any forecasts of the western strategists the order. Americans on their background look naive gawks.
Is a good remark. We tried to learn Afghans to operate independently the country. But in fact at Afghans of two thousand years of experience on self-management. To that can we learn them? There is one quality which is the big advantage - at moslems fantastic patience. When they suffer defeat, they have patience and continue to do with the divine help the business. This tremendous advantage. They live as though in the parallel world. For some reason at us in the USA it is considered to be, that lessons of a history do not concern to us. But all that occurs now to us in Afghanistan, occured and to the Soviet army, both with British, and with itself still B.C. It waged the same war and has lost.
- A problem also that your so-called allies in region are friends of you, holding the big fig in a pocket.
- About yes. We supported моджахедов in Afghanistan only to defeat the USSR. We believed, that we control them. I worked more than ten years in special actions with Afghans. And so, they never did that we asked them to make. These are one of the most obstinate and wilful people whom I ever met. If they had to do that is necessary to us, they so arranged all, that we did not have an impression, that they have made it for us. From the very beginning, as soon as we gave them the weapon, we perfectly knew: they hate us the same as you. You were at them the first on turn. The following should be we. Anybody did not doubt of it. I shall be repeated: the bin Laden never conducted with us of negotiations because hated us. Гульбеддин Хекматияр never contacted us. When we delivered them the weapon, we perfectly knew, that we - the following.
- That is now your turn …
-. Moslems long time have been adjusted пораженчески. Ben Laden a little whom could подвигнуть on jihad. The majority believed, that a superpower to win it is impossible. The leaving of Advice from Afghanistan was the first crisis. But new burst of activity of Islamites grows gim before what has burst in the end 80−х. In fact the USA suffer defeat at once in two conflicts. Such as the bin Laden, now, apparently, will be much. We have rather vague representation even that now occurs on the Balkans. There fifteen years through the НПО work саудиты and kuwaitis. So the young generation of moslems in this part of the world will be much more middle East, than previous. I suspect, that the same processes go on Northern Caucasus.
- The former spoilt child of the Pentagon Ahmed Chalabi (it designated in presidents of Iraq after Saddam's overthrow) has recently acutely specified the whole ball of contradictions, завязавшихся in Iraq. It has declared: « your friends in Iraq are allies of your enemies in region (шиитские parties and Iran. - "Expert"). And your enemies in Iraq are allies of your friends in region (суннитские guerrilla groups and Saudi Arabia, Jordan. - "Expert") ».
- Чалаби it is absolutely right, though it one of those who has tempted the USA on a campaign to Iraq. The USA will stay in Iraq, in a daily mode will bleed profusely. We cannot leave therefrom - Americans are compelled to protect Israel. Personally I think what to protect Israel it is not necessary. But the political class in the USA considers differently. Real threat for America consists that we can turn to one big Israel - to begin the same military camp, to lose appeal of our culture to other world and to lose effective public diplomacy.
- What true attitude бен Ладена to murders and acts of terrorism, including against moslems?
- I think, that it and his environment very much tried to stop Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави in Iraq. Since September, 11, 2001 the most important threat for "Аль-Каиды" were only two things. First, the Pakistan army from which they managed to be beaten off. And, second, activity Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави on kindling суннитско-шиитской interreligious massacre. It was very serious threat for бен Ладена. If Americans have not killed it, itself "Аль-Каида" would find a way to kill it or to deduce from Iraq. "Аль-Каида" most of all worries, that among moslems civil war because such war will put an irreparable loss in their struggle against the USA and the Arabian modes did not begin.
- Whether you count split of moslems on a line сунниты-шииты achievement of the American policy?
Is extremely negative achievement. In last book « we March directly in a hell » I just I write about such involuntary consequences much. Certainly, involuntary consequences can be, but it not necessarily unforeseen consequences. And that happened in Iraq and in Afghanistan, it was possible to expect all. It was not necessary to have any unique data, access to the classified information or pictures from space to expect everything, that will be. It was necessary to esteem a history of region only. Everything, that happened with us and with these countries, happened and earlier, and for the same reason. It seems to me, that from our adventure in Iraq we shall not bear anything useful. Anything. Only bad.
- And experience? War learns to be more mobile, forces to study languages, expands an outlook. The world not seems such flat any more to what it seem to Bush in his first term.
- Yes, certainly. At us the new generation спецслужбистов has appeared and militarians, who have experience how to lose at once for two wars. From defeat always you receive more knowledge, than from a victory. But I do not know, whether all these efforts of such price cost. We could learn all this, not starting war in Iraq. All the same another - Americans have personally seen the main purchase what to create democracy somewhere « behind ocean » on the American model - a true way to destroy America. There are no already any bases to believe, that to survive, the USA it is necessary to have as much as possible democracies abroad. The main thing - to look after the garden in Northern America, and vote whether or not иракцы or Afghans - has no such the big value. For us is already unimportant, how many there in Russia at you democracy. Russia is necessary for us as the reliable partner on a lot of problems - from non-distribution of the nuclear weapon and technologies before maintenance of stability in all Eurasia. And let Russians decide, that him to do with the country. At least this my sensation. This experience is more important than the militarian.
- What all of you-таки think concerning destiny бен Ладена in a Muslim society? It becomes the hero or will be damned?
- His well-being in the Muslim world is already provided. It will recollect as the hero during several generations. And it meaningly leaves after itself(himself) a heritage in writing. In the Muslim world there is almost nobody who would not count his good moslem. With it can not agree, can not approve his methods, but nobody puts under a question his piety and his adherence to Allah. In a Muslim history it remain a figure of historical scale.
Oleg Hrabryj, the author « Expert Online », "Expert", « the Expert Ukraine »
In Iraq and Afghanistan the USA have provided with the policy "Аль-Каиде" what at it never was, - the big extended territory in the neighbourhood with Saudi Arabia, the countries of Levant and Turkey. It is excellent base for distribution of its influence further to the west
Photo: Reuters
Michael Shoer headed special division of CIA « Alec стэйшн » (Alec Station) on Osama's search бен Ладена with 1996−го for 1999, and then till 2004 was the special adviser of the chapter of this unique group. Two years ago « Alec стэйшн » eventually it has been dismissed, and its employees have joined other divisions of the counterterrorist center the USA. Under the official version, the reason of reorganization was new statement of a problem - цээрушные bosses quite fairly believed, that problem "Аль-Каиды" already only опосредованно is connected to the person of the most known terrorist of all times and peoples. The organization бен Ладена which skeleton of steel the Arabian Afghans who have got demobilize in the end 80−х after a conclusion of the Soviet armies from Afghanistan, has got all necessary features of global structure. To search only бен Ладена as it seemed at the highest levels, is too big luxury. The problem really became global, but refusal of the concentrated search of the terrorist number one has puzzled many. In special services the USA concerned to wards Michael Shoera with some опаской - till their 2001 алармистские analytical reports irritated the Washington ruling class. After September, 11, 2001 group Shoera, as well as it, were a cataract on an eye - their panic conclusions in many respects appeared are true, therefore compromised Bush and his environment. Today Michael Shoer already got rid of the pseudonym "Anonym" under which it has written one of the best works - « Imperial arrogance. Why the West loses war with terror ». Шоэр began one of the most convincing critics of the American foreign policy and, perhaps, one of the most informed world experts on a theme which is doomed to remain in the agenda as early as many years. As someone is witty has noticed, to declare war to terrorism from the party the USA was equivalent to to declare war to a wind.
Attitude Шоэра to an event is capaciously expressed in the name of his new book which has more recently left in the USA, - « we March directly in a hell: America and an islam after Iraq ». "Expert" has addressed to the former operative of CIA who had to rake the inheritance of jihad inspired by Americans against the Soviet armies in Afghanistan, with questions on, whether there will be a result of present military operations the USA same what almost twenty years ago has received the USSR.
Ben Laden has imposed to Americans religious war
Photo: AP
- Term of the president the USA George Busha on the sly comes to an end. Whether it is important for him or for his environment, administrations to catch Osama бен Ладена - to show evident result? Or it any more a priority?
- Now it is very difficult to tell, that on mind at the president. Objectively speaking, destruction бен Ладена - the major problem. It does not need to be taken alive. If it will be taken alive as the minimum three years to it is provided a free-of-charge television ether, it will receive a fine opportunity to address to all Muslim world as the hero. So it should be destroyed. But the American foreign policy today is present accident. Bush does not have the armies necessary to supervise a situation simultaneously in Iraq and in Afghanistan. There is no opportunity to relocate an army so that seriously to engage бен Ладеном. I think, that the following president will solve the same problems. But to it will be where more difficultly. For the first time in a history of the West and, maybe, in a world history America appeared in position when in case of an attack on it - how it was on September, 11, 2001, or even worse, - it could not be answered. Military methods appeared are extremely inefficient.
- Where, how you think, the bin Laden now disappears?
- I think, that it is on border between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but not in area Vaziristana about which so speak much. Most likely, it somewhere to the north from Jelalabad, in area which refers to Кунар. It is possible, that it disappears also on the Pakistan part of this site of border - in area of autonomous region Badzhur. Here it was going to be directed in 1997 when it had to leave area of Jelalabad. But then talibs have invited it to Kandahar, and it has accepted the invitation. The area which I have named, both in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan, is a place where саудиты conduct the religious propaganda already more than thirty years. It is one of the most remote уголков Afghanistan. Here all on the party бен Ладена - a relief, remoteness and religious ground.
- If it will be compelled to leave therefrom, it will leave for Yemen?
- Yes, most likely. It very much loves Yemen. All his family therefrom comes. But it does not need to move anywhere. We lose war in Afghanistan. We have not enough armies - them will be insufficiently even if we shall send there all militarians from Iraq. We have learned nothing at a history, therefore and we pay now a big price.
- How protection бен Ладена is organized? From the party it seems, that it very precisely structured division. And in general, all around of him works as well organized mechanism.
- It has managed to combine skills of the theologian of XII century and the chapter of board of directors of the company of XXI century. It operates "Аль-Каидой" how his father operated the building business. Is able to delegate powers correctly. His organization does not test any difficulties with financing. Ben Laden - the supporter of modernization. We in the West count, that modernization and вестернизация is same. But it not so. All modern tools - whether there is a speech about the newest weapon or a communication facility - at "Аль-Каиды" in a course. Ben Laden very modern person. It has masterly learned to turn against us our weapon.
- What features of structure " Аль-Каиды "? It seems, that this organization ideally approaches for an opposition with a superpower - uses power of America against it.
- One of problems are the USA that "Аль-Каиду" rank as the classical terrorist organizations. But if it was the classical terrorist group, she would be quickly destroyed. "Аль-Каида" keeps in itself the same type of the internal device which has been created with the purpose of struggle against your country in Afghanistan in 80−х years of the last century. « Аль-Каида » is much larger than usual terrorist group, she is more difficult arranged. In it there are versatile components - special troops, guerrilla groups, groups on logistic, on purchase of the weapon. Also that is important - there is also very large медийная an organization. After September, 11 of us criticized that we have no people in the spheres approached to management "Аль-Каиды". I fairly recognized - yes, we could not penetrate into this organization, but our allies in Europe, but also our allies in the Arabian and Muslim world could not make it not only we, not only. It is the extremely complex purpose for special services. Each new member of this organization applying for more or less significant positions, should have such biography and such family communications which can be traced during several generations. All is checked - not only all close relatives, but even cousin both second cousins and sisters. Such we yet did not know. We in general know about processes which go in the Muslim world very little.
"Аль-Каида" it is created to battle to the country which many times over surpasses her on power. In it the mechanism of change of leaders is rather precisely built. You, certainly, heard, how many leaders number two, three, four in the organization have been killed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Qualitative changes does not occur - on a place killed immediately there are tens others. And replacement goes not equal on equal, and the chief is replaced by the assistant, the pupil replaces the teacher. So the new leader knows what to do. Efficiency does not suffer. Europe, the USA have not understood still, that the question is not absolutely terrorists. They are typical guerrillas. This fact gives our enemies weight of advantages. « Аль-Каида » has widely stretched the networks, it does not have air stations, it does not have traditional actives of the national state, but we appeared in a situation when on its attack if those happen, we will have nothing to answer in the military plan. We can strike across Iran, across Mecca, across Medina, but it only will aggravate a situation.
- But, maybe, the question is what the USA try to struggle with a uniform civil society in his Arabian Muslim version?
Is very true remark. When you listen to the present president the USA, or Clinton up to him, or present candidates in presidents, all of them speak as if we deal with a gang of gangsters which can be counted on fingers. And it on hundred percent incorrectly. For this reason America loses now simultaneously two wars. In the West in general - at least, in Europe and the USA - political leaders do not want to speak the truth. It at all war for our freedom, liberal values or gender equality. It is war which main reason is negative influence western, and in particular American, foreign policy on the Muslim world. It is religious war. Our actions in the Muslim world are perceived as an attack on an islam. For this reason opposition to America and the West, but especially America so it is strong.
Our policies, both democrats, and republicans, do not understand motivation of the opponent. They have underestimated threat. If threat which represent "Аль-Каида" and Osama bin Laden, was correctly осмыслена, the USA never would began to attack Iraq. But to this threat the American leaders trifled always. They do not want to speak people, that one of the reasons why we are at war with an islam, our clumsy support of Israel, our dependence on oil from Arabian peninsula is and, that our support of the Arabian police states - Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, Algeria is especially destructive for America. It to voters to explain it is impossible, therefore anybody and does not explain. Policies get out as can and declare, that terrorists want to destroy our civilization.
- What do you think concerning ability бен Ладена and his environments to make strategic decisions? They planned for Americans war in Iraq?
- If the bin Laden was the Christian, intrusion the USA to Iraq would become for him a wonderful christmas gift. It and his environment at all did not assume, that Americans appear are so silly, that полезут to Iraq. And this nonsense only is multiplied. To Americans constantly speak, that "Аль-Каида" - the main enemy the USA in Iraq. And it not so. In Iraq there is first of all a guerrilla war, and "Аль-Каида" is a makeweight to it. At guerrilla war quite definite purposes. In Iraq we now receive the same experience which Russian have wholly received in Afghanistan. Arabs were a headache for the Soviet armies, but the main enemy were all the same Afghans. Ben Laden, as is known, the child of that Afghani war. It never gets involved in bloody oppositions a forehead in a forehead. At him always near by a reliable refuge as Pakistan. It publicly explained, why has not left to the Balkans, - it there had no place to place the fighting groups. Iraq has given "Аль-Каиде" what at it before never was - the big extended territory in immediate proximity from Saudi Arabia, Levant and Turkey. And today "Аль-Каида" it is very active in Jordan and in Northern Lebanon. Israelis assert, that she already in Gaza. Its rough activity across all Africa is obvious. So the big gift of destiny for "Аль-Каиды" is not so much the appeared chance daily us to kill in Iraq and Afghanistan, how many to have an opportunity to place there bases and to distribute the influence further to the west.
- The American style of business management promoted creation of many myths about communications of special services with the terrorist organizations. We in the Chechen Republic had mirror situation. But whether there are myths which all the same not absolutely are myths?
- When I was the officer of special service, I closely worked with Afghani моджахедами during war with the Soviet army in Afghanistan. And I can tell to you quite sincerely, that we did not have communications with Osama бен Ладеном. Not because we did not want it, that is why, that already then it hated us. Your special services not by hearsay know how difficultly to trace and destroy any field commander in Afghanistan or the Chechen Republic. At you then was lumpsum 120 thousand soldiers in Afghanistan. At us there now no more than 30 thousand. With such forces we cannot make much that should. Then moslems start to think, that Americans cannot destroy бен Ладена not so much, how many do not want. It is a fruit of extremely inefficient management of war and absolute misunderstanding, we deal with what enemy and as far as it is dangerous.
- But you, being on service, never ran in конспирологию?
- (Laughs). I have worked twenty five years in special service and is absolutely convinced, that we did not have preconditions to give real peep for конспирологов. Outflow necessarily would begin, and all would end with leading articles of conducting newspapers. You even cannot present yourselves, how many at us has flowed away secrets only for the sake of the outflow.
- Analyzing everything, that « the Imperial arrogance » and your comments about бен Ладене spins around of your book and to his command, come to a conclusion, that you with it had any communication - as between the inspector and suspected. It even read your book.
- Yes, and it to me tightens all new and new readers. (Laughs). You know, I was learned by jesuits. And when you are learned by jesuits, they learn you to draw a precise side between black and white, good and bad, and the main thing to not confuse itself. To accept the world such what it is, instead of such what you want to see it. And much of about what speaks church, I have found in speeches бен Ладена. It in the Muslim world openly speaks one of the few about problems of this world. It at all does not blame Americans in all those problems which have captured the Muslim world. In them the bin Laden blames moslems for their insincerity in belief.
I would compare it to the commander German African case Ervinom Rommelem in the Second world war. It was gloomy, but dear enemy dear for talent. If we did not respect it, we could not defeat it in Africa. And so, to win бен Ладена, it needs to be understood and respected. But I shall add still something about конспирологии. At Clinton was ten fine chances to destroy бен Ладена. It has not made it. So here has worked, I would tell, bible punishment. If not to take advantage of chance when it to you is given, chance попользуется you. And this indecision concerns not only to democrats. Bush could destroy бен Ладена in the Тора-pine forest in 2001. But it did not want losses, therefore operation has failed. He had fine opportunity to destroy Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави even prior to the beginning of war in Iraq, but also it has not made it - the bases were necessary for retraction of allies in war for it. The American presidents - the extremely irresolute people.
Is such some kind of a by-product of democracy?
Is not a product of democracy, it is a product of PR. Bush always accused that it does not pay attention to the international public opinion. But just because it did not want to offend Europeans and did not want to offend arabs who extract for us oil, the bin Laden is still alive, and Абу Мусаб аз-Заркави has been liquidated only after Saddam Husejn has killed more Americans, than. Bush has been simply poisoned with idea, that it can become almost the president of all world. Instead of it it needed to concentrate on protection of Americans.
- One of the reasons why your division « Alec стэйшн » has been closed, like would consist that search бен Ладена was not considered any more in a narrow key. Other leaders have appeared many, and the administration has considered as luxury to search for one whole group? It was a mistake?
Is was only bureaucratic re-structuring. CIA and in general the government work in such key as though cold war proceeds. We have divided the world geographically - into Europe, Africa, Asia and so on. And thematically - economy, a policy, oil. For special service somehow it was unnatural to search for someone one worldwide, therefore our bureaucrats некомфортно felt themselves and eventually have dismissed structure. They have paid for it with the big blood. With such global enemy as "Аль-Каида", it is possible to battle only from one center. But if one work for you against "Аль-Каиды" in Europe, others - in Africa, the third - in Northern America, you have as a result of a heap of people which know particulars, but do not imagine how all structure functions. Such approach specifies that all of us still live myths of cold war.
- Now in the environment of Muslim religious authorities sharp enough polemic concerning methods "Аль-Каиды" began - whether they have any attitude to an islam. Once close Айману аз-Завахири улем Сайид Имам аш-Шариф not without the help of the Egyptian authorities has published the book with theological criticism of jihad "Аль-Каиды". Аз-Завахири has responded the treatise. This debate can have what value for destiny "Аль-Каиды" in the Muslim world?
- The main criticism to address of "Аль-Каиды" from the party улемов Egypt and other Arabian countries is a criticism of those who is in hands of the Egyptian, Saudi or Jordanian governments. Even in the Koran it is spoken, that the opinion of the one who is under strong pressure or is supervised by someone another, is not a subject of serious consideration. At me such impression, that the Saudi or Egyptian government publishes these books, more likely, to convince Americans, that it though something tries to make. Apparently, here there is a transaction - criticism "Аль-Каиды" in exchange for an indulgence in prison. The majority of moslems are not inclined to trust opinion of those who supervised by authorities.
- From dialogue with улемами in Iraq I had an impression, that with the help of religious studies they manage to develop powerful methodology of the strategic political analysis. She is higher than any forecasts of the western strategists the order. Americans on their background look naive gawks.
Is a good remark. We tried to learn Afghans to operate independently the country. But in fact at Afghans of two thousand years of experience on self-management. To that can we learn them? There is one quality which is the big advantage - at moslems fantastic patience. When they suffer defeat, they have patience and continue to do with the divine help the business. This tremendous advantage. They live as though in the parallel world. For some reason at us in the USA it is considered to be, that lessons of a history do not concern to us. But all that occurs now to us in Afghanistan, occured and to the Soviet army, both with British, and with itself still B.C. It waged the same war and has lost.
- A problem also that your so-called allies in region are friends of you, holding the big fig in a pocket.
- About yes. We supported моджахедов in Afghanistan only to defeat the USSR. We believed, that we control them. I worked more than ten years in special actions with Afghans. And so, they never did that we asked them to make. These are one of the most obstinate and wilful people whom I ever met. If they had to do that is necessary to us, they so arranged all, that we did not have an impression, that they have made it for us. From the very beginning, as soon as we gave them the weapon, we perfectly knew: they hate us the same as you. You were at them the first on turn. The following should be we. Anybody did not doubt of it. I shall be repeated: the bin Laden never conducted with us of negotiations because hated us. Гульбеддин Хекматияр never contacted us. When we delivered them the weapon, we perfectly knew, that we - the following.
- That is now your turn …
-. Moslems long time have been adjusted пораженчески. Ben Laden a little whom could подвигнуть on jihad. The majority believed, that a superpower to win it is impossible. The leaving of Advice from Afghanistan was the first crisis. But new burst of activity of Islamites grows gim before what has burst in the end 80−х. In fact the USA suffer defeat at once in two conflicts. Such as the bin Laden, now, apparently, will be much. We have rather vague representation even that now occurs on the Balkans. There fifteen years through the НПО work саудиты and kuwaitis. So the young generation of moslems in this part of the world will be much more middle East, than previous. I suspect, that the same processes go on Northern Caucasus.
- The former spoilt child of the Pentagon Ahmed Chalabi (it designated in presidents of Iraq after Saddam's overthrow) has recently acutely specified the whole ball of contradictions, завязавшихся in Iraq. It has declared: « your friends in Iraq are allies of your enemies in region (шиитские parties and Iran. - "Expert"). And your enemies in Iraq are allies of your friends in region (суннитские guerrilla groups and Saudi Arabia, Jordan. - "Expert") ».
- Чалаби it is absolutely right, though it one of those who has tempted the USA on a campaign to Iraq. The USA will stay in Iraq, in a daily mode will bleed profusely. We cannot leave therefrom - Americans are compelled to protect Israel. Personally I think what to protect Israel it is not necessary. But the political class in the USA considers differently. Real threat for America consists that we can turn to one big Israel - to begin the same military camp, to lose appeal of our culture to other world and to lose effective public diplomacy.
- What true attitude бен Ладена to murders and acts of terrorism, including against moslems?
- I think, that it and his environment very much tried to stop Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави in Iraq. Since September, 11, 2001 the most important threat for "Аль-Каиды" were only two things. First, the Pakistan army from which they managed to be beaten off. And, second, activity Абу Мусаба аз-Заркави on kindling суннитско-шиитской interreligious massacre. It was very serious threat for бен Ладена. If Americans have not killed it, itself "Аль-Каида" would find a way to kill it or to deduce from Iraq. "Аль-Каида" most of all worries, that among moslems civil war because such war will put an irreparable loss in their struggle against the USA and the Arabian modes did not begin.
- Whether you count split of moslems on a line сунниты-шииты achievement of the American policy?
Is extremely negative achievement. In last book « we March directly in a hell » I just I write about such involuntary consequences much. Certainly, involuntary consequences can be, but it not necessarily unforeseen consequences. And that happened in Iraq and in Afghanistan, it was possible to expect all. It was not necessary to have any unique data, access to the classified information or pictures from space to expect everything, that will be. It was necessary to esteem a history of region only. Everything, that happened with us and with these countries, happened and earlier, and for the same reason. It seems to me, that from our adventure in Iraq we shall not bear anything useful. Anything. Only bad.
- And experience? War learns to be more mobile, forces to study languages, expands an outlook. The world not seems such flat any more to what it seem to Bush in his first term.
- Yes, certainly. At us the new generation спецслужбистов has appeared and militarians, who have experience how to lose at once for two wars. From defeat always you receive more knowledge, than from a victory. But I do not know, whether all these efforts of such price cost. We could learn all this, not starting war in Iraq. All the same another - Americans have personally seen the main purchase what to create democracy somewhere « behind ocean » on the American model - a true way to destroy America. There are no already any bases to believe, that to survive, the USA it is necessary to have as much as possible democracies abroad. The main thing - to look after the garden in Northern America, and vote whether or not иракцы or Afghans - has no such the big value. For us is already unimportant, how many there in Russia at you democracy. Russia is necessary for us as the reliable partner on a lot of problems - from non-distribution of the nuclear weapon and technologies before maintenance of stability in all Eurasia. And let Russians decide, that him to do with the country. At least this my sensation. This experience is more important than the militarian.
- What all of you-таки think concerning destiny бен Ладена in a Muslim society? It becomes the hero or will be damned?
- His well-being in the Muslim world is already provided. It will recollect as the hero during several generations. And it meaningly leaves after itself(himself) a heritage in writing. In the Muslim world there is almost nobody who would not count his good moslem. With it can not agree, can not approve his methods, but nobody puts under a question his piety and his adherence to Allah. In a Muslim history it remain a figure of historical scale.
2008-03-23
The Joint Staff leaves in opposition
24.03.2008 00:28 | The Independent newspaper
The discontent of generals civil Minister of Defence gets mass character
In bowels of military department opposition moods in relation to Minister of Defence Anatoly Serdjukovu are formed. In the chapter of this opposition outstanding generals and officers. Such unfavourable conclusion follows from the informal information acting from Ministry of Defence of Russia. Resistance of people in погонах is directed on the reforms started by minister, privatization of military objects, reorganization and significant reduction of the central device of department, his other structures.
The form of the protest while silent - many officers and generals are going to write or already submit the official report on a transfer to the reserve. It not the new phenomenon in the newest history of Russia. But now it, is possible, so and remained unnoticed if among interested persons further to serve at present minister there were no first persons. And among them the first deputy minister - the chief of Joint Staff VS of the Russian Federation general Jury Baluevsky. As inform our sources, it has made it because of disagreement with a policy of reforms whom has planned and Anatoly Serdjukov started to put into practice. There are data (they are now checked), that the official report on dismissal have written some heads of the main and central managements of Ministry of Defence and the Joint Staff. Name including assistant Baluevskogo, the chief of the Main organizational - mobilization management of the Joint Staff, that, that knows an appeal, general - colonel Vasily Smirnova. Let's notice, that the official report about resignation before a voluntary leaving from life general - colonel Victor Vlasov (this post is equated to a post of the deputy minister) has written temporarily исполняющий a post of the chief of Service расквартирования and arrangements of Ministry of Defence.
While official acknowledgement and refutations concerning intention Baluevsky and other generals to leave the posts was not. Informal sources assert, that in a management of the country try to put out in a silent way the conflict between generals and Minister of Defence. At least it is used the best efforts, that about these contradictions have as small as possible learned mass-media. However some military sources independent from each other have informed "IN", that the present chief of the Joint Staff is in « преддембельском holiday », and have told about some details connected to the reasons of dismissal of general Jury Baluevsky.
It appears, Baluevsky for last five months has written three official reports about resignation. The first in November, 2007 when the presidential decree to a new post of the deputy minister had been appointed the adviser and fellow countryman Anatoly Serdjukova the general - major of FSB of a stock Oleg Eskin. It count the native of a command питерцев - Eskin has ended the Leningrad institute of instrument making, then Military academy of communication of a name of Budyonny, long time for various posts served in the staff of Northwest district located in Saint Petersburg погранвойск.
Now Eskin supervises questions of development of the automated control systems, information technologies and communications. Earlier the Joint Staff through subordinated to it directly Management of the chief of armies of communication and the so-called 8 management specializing on closed systems of communication and protection of military secrets was engaged in these questions. For all 200-years history of existence of military department the post of the deputy minister of the defense supervising communication, is entered for the first time. It, in opinion генштабистов, breaks harmonous, years the checked up control system of armies. In their opinion, purpose was subjective and has no any expediency but only brings in management of armies the certain diarchy.
Балуевский disagreed and that some functions of the Joint Staff at him have simply selected. It, as well as many military professionals, disagreed with a hasty conclusion and privatization in Moscow and Northern capital of military objects. The person not disputed, the general some times addressed for the help and support in administration of the president, in the government and to the first vice-premier Sergey Ivanov, but has understood what prove the correctness cannot.
The second official report on dismissal Балуевский has written before the birthday, probably, believing, that it it will draw to itself(himself) attention of a management and the president. However any reaction of the Kremlin to his official report has not appeared. The mass-media have informed that Балуевскому to which 61 year on January, 9, 2008 was executed, the military service is prolonged by the presidential decree to three years. The virtual private trust of the president, probably, for a while has inspired the general of army, and on January, 19 it has addressed to at scientific conference of Academy of military sciences with the report on problems of national safety of Russia at the present stage. There it for the first time has publicly declared, that the Navy from Moscow to Petersburg disagree with translation Главкомата. That, as experts consider, lobbies Anatoly Serdjukova's environment. And on January, 25 on the occasion of the 245-anniversary of creation of the Joint Staff of Armed forces of Russia Балуевский has acted with clause in the newspaper of Ministry of Defence « Red star » where has as though reminded Сердюкову of the leading part of the Joint Staff « in forecasting and an estimation of an international situation, in formation of offers to a military-political management of the country in sphere of maintenance of national safety ».
All this it is underlined correct struggle Балуевского against innovations Сердюкова has not brought significant results. At the end of February the general has written the third official report. Sources mark, that last drop became death of general Vlasova, and also "unfairly scale" reorganization of Ministry of Defence planned by minister and the Joint Staff. In substantiations on possible reduction of the central device the chief of Main operative management ГШ general - colonel Alexander Rukshin, for example, has offered figure - 20 %. And Сердюков her has corrected on 40 %.
Why so elite generals strongly resist to his innovations? Why they against landslide reductions, privatization and sale of military objects? Questions - very serious. They concern military safety of the country. And, probably, in a position of professional Baluevskogo too there is a correctness.
On some data, Балуевскому have called from the Kremlin and have suggested to not hurry up supposedly descend in holiday, will dismiss, but later, after inauguration of the new president. In a management of the country now distinctly understand, that change of the political leader in Russia should pass without serious consequences and predictedly for a society. As the original stabilizing factor here the generals and it олицетворение - Jury Baluevsky, certainly, acts. Though selection of candidates for supervising posts in military department causes weight of questions.
The majority of present heads of Ministry of Defence have not passed large army posts, were not at war in hot points. The same new promoted worker of the Kremlin, the ex-adviser of president Alexander Burutin whom designate on place Балуевского, did not oder about even a battalion. The general son serves in corridors of Arbat military district already almost 20 years. Together with it the commanders of military districts past Afghanistan and the Chechen Republic apply for posts НГШ. But, probably, their chances it is insignificant are small.
The discontent of generals civil Minister of Defence gets mass character
In bowels of military department opposition moods in relation to Minister of Defence Anatoly Serdjukovu are formed. In the chapter of this opposition outstanding generals and officers. Such unfavourable conclusion follows from the informal information acting from Ministry of Defence of Russia. Resistance of people in погонах is directed on the reforms started by minister, privatization of military objects, reorganization and significant reduction of the central device of department, his other structures.
The form of the protest while silent - many officers and generals are going to write or already submit the official report on a transfer to the reserve. It not the new phenomenon in the newest history of Russia. But now it, is possible, so and remained unnoticed if among interested persons further to serve at present minister there were no first persons. And among them the first deputy minister - the chief of Joint Staff VS of the Russian Federation general Jury Baluevsky. As inform our sources, it has made it because of disagreement with a policy of reforms whom has planned and Anatoly Serdjukov started to put into practice. There are data (they are now checked), that the official report on dismissal have written some heads of the main and central managements of Ministry of Defence and the Joint Staff. Name including assistant Baluevskogo, the chief of the Main organizational - mobilization management of the Joint Staff, that, that knows an appeal, general - colonel Vasily Smirnova. Let's notice, that the official report about resignation before a voluntary leaving from life general - colonel Victor Vlasov (this post is equated to a post of the deputy minister) has written temporarily исполняющий a post of the chief of Service расквартирования and arrangements of Ministry of Defence.
While official acknowledgement and refutations concerning intention Baluevsky and other generals to leave the posts was not. Informal sources assert, that in a management of the country try to put out in a silent way the conflict between generals and Minister of Defence. At least it is used the best efforts, that about these contradictions have as small as possible learned mass-media. However some military sources independent from each other have informed "IN", that the present chief of the Joint Staff is in « преддембельском holiday », and have told about some details connected to the reasons of dismissal of general Jury Baluevsky.
It appears, Baluevsky for last five months has written three official reports about resignation. The first in November, 2007 when the presidential decree to a new post of the deputy minister had been appointed the adviser and fellow countryman Anatoly Serdjukova the general - major of FSB of a stock Oleg Eskin. It count the native of a command питерцев - Eskin has ended the Leningrad institute of instrument making, then Military academy of communication of a name of Budyonny, long time for various posts served in the staff of Northwest district located in Saint Petersburg погранвойск.
Now Eskin supervises questions of development of the automated control systems, information technologies and communications. Earlier the Joint Staff through subordinated to it directly Management of the chief of armies of communication and the so-called 8 management specializing on closed systems of communication and protection of military secrets was engaged in these questions. For all 200-years history of existence of military department the post of the deputy minister of the defense supervising communication, is entered for the first time. It, in opinion генштабистов, breaks harmonous, years the checked up control system of armies. In their opinion, purpose was subjective and has no any expediency but only brings in management of armies the certain diarchy.
Балуевский disagreed and that some functions of the Joint Staff at him have simply selected. It, as well as many military professionals, disagreed with a hasty conclusion and privatization in Moscow and Northern capital of military objects. The person not disputed, the general some times addressed for the help and support in administration of the president, in the government and to the first vice-premier Sergey Ivanov, but has understood what prove the correctness cannot.
The second official report on dismissal Балуевский has written before the birthday, probably, believing, that it it will draw to itself(himself) attention of a management and the president. However any reaction of the Kremlin to his official report has not appeared. The mass-media have informed that Балуевскому to which 61 year on January, 9, 2008 was executed, the military service is prolonged by the presidential decree to three years. The virtual private trust of the president, probably, for a while has inspired the general of army, and on January, 19 it has addressed to at scientific conference of Academy of military sciences with the report on problems of national safety of Russia at the present stage. There it for the first time has publicly declared, that the Navy from Moscow to Petersburg disagree with translation Главкомата. That, as experts consider, lobbies Anatoly Serdjukova's environment. And on January, 25 on the occasion of the 245-anniversary of creation of the Joint Staff of Armed forces of Russia Балуевский has acted with clause in the newspaper of Ministry of Defence « Red star » where has as though reminded Сердюкову of the leading part of the Joint Staff « in forecasting and an estimation of an international situation, in formation of offers to a military-political management of the country in sphere of maintenance of national safety ».
All this it is underlined correct struggle Балуевского against innovations Сердюкова has not brought significant results. At the end of February the general has written the third official report. Sources mark, that last drop became death of general Vlasova, and also "unfairly scale" reorganization of Ministry of Defence planned by minister and the Joint Staff. In substantiations on possible reduction of the central device the chief of Main operative management ГШ general - colonel Alexander Rukshin, for example, has offered figure - 20 %. And Сердюков her has corrected on 40 %.
Why so elite generals strongly resist to his innovations? Why they against landslide reductions, privatization and sale of military objects? Questions - very serious. They concern military safety of the country. And, probably, in a position of professional Baluevskogo too there is a correctness.
On some data, Балуевскому have called from the Kremlin and have suggested to not hurry up supposedly descend in holiday, will dismiss, but later, after inauguration of the new president. In a management of the country now distinctly understand, that change of the political leader in Russia should pass without serious consequences and predictedly for a society. As the original stabilizing factor here the generals and it олицетворение - Jury Baluevsky, certainly, acts. Though selection of candidates for supervising posts in military department causes weight of questions.
The majority of present heads of Ministry of Defence have not passed large army posts, were not at war in hot points. The same new promoted worker of the Kremlin, the ex-adviser of president Alexander Burutin whom designate on place Балуевского, did not oder about even a battalion. The general son serves in corridors of Arbat military district already almost 20 years. Together with it the commanders of military districts past Afghanistan and the Chechen Republic apply for posts НГШ. But, probably, their chances it is insignificant are small.
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